How does drought affect livestock, farmers, and your grocery bill?

Beef and milk prices can potentially increase in price if drought forces farmers to sell their cows. (Gus Chan / The Plain Dealer)The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio - When we think of drought, the first thought is often of crops, gardens and other plants. But animals, and their byproducts, are also affected by a lack of water, which can eventually translate to higher grocery costs.

And while farmers are reluctant to raise alarms, Thursday marked the first week that Ohio entered a drought in 2023. Northeast Ohio is also in the second longest period within the months of May and June without rain on record, behind only a 25-day stretch in 1977.

In Ohio, 1.8 million hogs, 600,000 cattle, 4 million acres of corn, 3.8 million acres of soybean and 1.7 acres of hay are in the areas that are currently affected by drought, according to the USDA.

So if conditions worsen, what happens to livestock and how will it affect Ohio?

"Different species are going to be affected differently," says Roger High, the director of livestock at the Ohio Farm Bureau. "But one of the things that we know is that the animal's nutrition, combined with the heat and dry ground, is impactful in terms of their health."

Like people, livestock like cows sweat in warm weather and can develop respiratory issues, which require the animals to expend more energy and, in turn, need more food to keep going throughout the day.

But nutritional food can be harder to come by during a drought. Grains, hay, and grass lose nutritional value during a drought, like proteins that help give animals energy.

Additionally, the lack of water introduces nitrates into the grass, corn and other feeds, which can lead to nitrate poisoning in ruminant animals -or hoofed herbivores that are able to acquire nutrients from plant-based food by fermenting it in a specialized stomach prior to digestion - like cattle and goats.

Nitrate poisoning is caused by the nitrates being absorbed into the bloodstream and binding to hemoglobin, preventing oxygen from carrying out throughout the body, eventually leading to asphyxiation or death.

There is even more to this if the livestock is on an organic farm like Jeff Miller's Bear Cave Farm in Dundee.

"I’m an organic dairy farmer and we’re on the grass milk route, so 60% of their intake needs to come off of the pasture through the growing season," says Miller. "A drought creates a definite challenge for us to continue to meet those demands and requirements."

For instance, Miller had planned an all-grass diet for the season but quickly had to abandon it by May 20 and opt to feed his herd the 40% of non-grass feed allowed by regulations.

Droughts can become a problem for livestock farmers who don't have a preparatory plan, like a reserve of crops or an irrigation system, in place.

For instance, because animal feed grown during a drought has less nutritional value, farmers must provide greater quantities of feed to make up the difference. This is less of an issue if there is food stored from previous seasons that can be offered, but an expensive problem to have if not.

"Feed and hay costs are going to go up because it's a supply and demand thing," said High. "You’re going to have to find other hay sources or substitute poor-quality hay with some grains."

Costs will also go up because the feed will likely have to be imported into Ohio from somewhere with a better crop.

"If everybody's going to be impacted by lower forage supply, we may have to buy it from states further away," said Maurice L. Eastridge, professor and senior associate chair of the Department of Animal Sciences at the Ohio State University.

Concerns over rising costs and animal welfare also stress farmers significantly. Depression and suicides are often reported more during drought season.

"A drought tends to always be harder on farmers and ranchers mentally than it actually is financially," says Bear Cave Farm's Miller. "I’ve got a little bit more experience than some people do, and if you’ve gone through it before, you don't get quite as upset or depressed as the first time when you think, man, can I survive this?"

If a farmer can't afford to feed their livestock, they may avoid the stress and choose to cut their losses and sell off their animals to other farms in places not affected by drought. This creates a new supply and demand problem for consumers.

When farmers sell their livestock to other regions of the country, they are also effectively taking local meat and dairy products off grocery store shelves.

Supply and demand strike again. The less meat and dairy to buy, the more expensive they become for what is available.

"Over time, it could have some impact on certainly yields and prices on the ruminant side like dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goats and so forth," said Eastridge.

It's already begun. Since 2018 the United States has lost heads of cattle year over year, and is now seeing some of the lowest numbers in 40 years. This has led the USDA and the meat industry to begin issuing warnings of higher costs and up to 5.6% less beef available per person.

While the downward trend began with the COVID-19 pandemic, it is being extended by the threat of drought. And like other food items increasing in price due to inflation, the most vulnerable will be the most affected.

"We always know that these types of things affect people that struggle with income and find that they have trouble affording good food," says the Ohio Farm Bureau's High. "It becomes a human health issue because you’re not eating as high-quality food as you could if you had the income to afford that."

As with many things, the answer is "it depends."

"A little bit of rain here and there is not going to help us," says High. "We’ve got to get some significant rains in order to grow good grain crops such as corn and soybeans that helps a livestock farmer."

Right now, rain is forecasted every day next week from Sunday until mid-week. But to make a real difference, it has to rain significantly to help grow some crops, cool the animals, and replenish the feed.

"If we get to Wednesday and we ended up maybe getting an eighth of an inch or something just to tease us a little bit, it doesn't really do anything to help," says Miller. "I don't even really like to contemplate that."

Zachary Smith is the data reporter for cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer. See previous stories at this link.

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How does drought affect livestock, farmers, and your grocery bill?